Pretty spot on. I wrote a little about this before the invasion and have written about it since.
One of the things I haven't been talking about, and I haven't seen other s mention it, is why American intelligence seemed so caught off guard by the invasion.
It seems to me that anyone who can do what he did to Grozny (leveled it) is capable of almost anything. The current mainstream media suggestion that Putin has suddenly gone off the rails is nuts. He's always been a sociopath, and U.S. and European policy should have reacted accordingly a long time ago.
People forget that he took Crimea under Obama's watch. This is not a defense of that clown Trump, but it's an observation that American policy, which has focused significantly on NATO expansion against a man who has been railing about the fall of the Soviet empire for years, seemed almost designed for this outcome.