I've been working with Ukrainians for the last ten months. So to answer your question about going back in time, I can tell you from personal experience they'd say yes, and in fact their determination to win this war is quite strong. They love working with the western economy. The same one many of us complain about.

My Ukrainian co-workers were caught off guard. None of the ones I know expected Putin to invade. Even a day or two before he hit them, with his forces lined up, they were saying, "no way." They all have relatives in Russia, and vice versa. The idea of his invading the country was nonsensical to them.

A brief incursion to help the separatists? Yes, they considered that a possibility. Even a likelihood, but not this. This wasn't a rational decision.

The first thing a foreign policy analyst has to do is determine if the opponent is rational. I think that most foreign policy analysts in the state department thought that Putin, although ruthless (see Grozny) was rational, and maybe even brilliant.

I don't think we can blame analysts for missing this one. He's too isolated. It was a miss, but many people missed it.

I don't disagree with those that NATO pushed too hard. But Putin's reaction isn't just an overreaction, it isn't a relevant one for the 21st century. He will never hold Ukraine. Invasions like that just don't play out in this century, when one man can take out a tank.

All he's done is pushed Ukraine into the Western European sphere. Maybe not this year, but the best Putin can hope for is five or more years of bloody guerilla warfare. He's managed to turn a nation that was half Russian-leaning completely against Russia.

So yeah, Hans Morgenthau is having a wet dream in his grave while he watches this, but in the long run, Ukraine will become part of Western Europe, unless Putin blows us all to smithereens.

You might enjoy this article in the New Yorker, which actually agrees with you. It's an interesting back and forth of the arguments:

https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/why-john-mearsheimer-blames-the-us-for-the-crisis-in-ukraine

Thanks for the comment and the good observations.