I don't remember much about being affected by exit polling in 2016, but I do remember that I was working in the Bay Area during Kerry's election and getting alerts from CNN that showed Kerry winning the exit vote in states where polls had already closed.

This time around there is some anecdotal evidence that guides me to think Trump is toast, in a bigly way.

https://theconversation.com/for-a-growing-number-of-evangelical-christians-trump-is-no-longer-the-lesser-of-two-evils-148714

is one.

One more small anecdote. The NY Times had an opinoin piece that brought up a good point. Could be that many evangelists will look at their 6-3 SCOTUS and think, "Mission Accomplished," and stay home. Trump fatigue and all that.